Our Insights

Will the European Central Bank wait for the Federal Reserve to cut rates first? That was conventional wisdom not long ago, but the diverging inflation trends in the US and euro area – with the likely next step visualized here by CEIC's proprietary nowcasts – mean that Christine Lagarde is probably going to loosen policy before Jerome Powell does. (The ECB president has indicated this is likely at the central bank's June meeting.)

Brazilian inflation continues to ease. To get a sense of its future trajectory, we can explore the prices for goods at manufacturers' factory gates, or producer-price inflation (PPI) – which has, in fact, been in deflation for some time.

Indonesia recently (and unexpectedly) hiked its benchmark interest rate, concerned that a weak currency was running the risk of importing inflation. As Indonesia relies on imports for many of its staple foods, it's worth looking at a proprietary, daily index from CEIC to get an early hint about monthly official inflation figures.

This chart tracks the number of ships arriving and departing at China's top 20 ports, using our Chinese Premium Database. Offering daily readings of a month-long moving average, this high-frequency time series gives CEIC users a timely edge when assessing trade flows – as well as a granular breakdown of different ports and vessel types.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently laid out a vision for "friendshoring" that would benefit Latin America by diversifying supply chains across the region. However, the region's post-pandemic surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) is showing signs of fizzling. Our charts track FDI for the seven biggest economies in Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Peru and Ecuador. The long-term trend shows a steady decline pre-pandemic in USD terms before an impressive snap-back in 2021 and 2022. However, aggregate FDI fell back in 2023, dropping 10% year-on-year to 2018 levels. Brazil, the biggest economy (and the recipient of roughly 40% of the regional inflow) saw FDI drop by USD 12 billion in absolute terms.

As our premium datasets from India's top commodity exchange demonstrate, metal prices are on the rise as global demand picks up.

These charts track data from the National Commodity and Derivatives Index (NCDEX), showing how prices for different metals rose more or less in unison from the start of this month.

Longing for Langkawi's beaches or a bowl of laksa in Penang? You're not alone: Malaysia is having the strongest tourism rebound in Southeast Asia.

Narendra Modi and his BJP party are seeking a renewed mandate from Indian voters. Over his decade in power, India has become the world’s fastest-growing major economy and absolute poverty levels have fallen steadily. On measures of inequality, the picture is mixed.

As Fed Chair Jay Powell surveys the surprisingly resilient US economy that followed his tightening cycle, our nowcast suggests manufacturing remains a pocket of weakness. Industrial production shrank by 0.2% year-on-year in March, according to CEIC’s latest estimate. That’s unchanged from February.

In an uncertain and harder to predict geopolitical and economic environment, talks about new world order or at least about significant shifts in international relations are not unfounded. In that sense an appropriate approach to observe the data is to zoom out. When monitoring key indicators in decade and not monthly increments the reorientation of key emerging markets towards China is straightforward. Let's take a look at South-East Asia for example, where the majority of the global population lives.