Nowcasting South Korean inflation: a welcome plateau amid political turmoil

Nowcasting South Korean inflation: a welcome plateau amid political turmoil

South Korean inflation is likely plateauing, according to CEIC's latest nowcast – welcome news for an import-dependent nation that has seen an outbreak of political turmoil hit the exchange rate.
Nowcasting the hot US economy Trump is inheriting
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Nowcasting the hot US economy Trump is inheriting

The US economy ended 2024 with its strongest performance in almost three years, according to CEIC's latest nowcast. Our machine learning-driven model projects that real gross domestic product expanded at a 4% year-on-year pace in the fourth quarter. That's the strongest performance since the first three months of 2022, when the economy was snapping back from the pandemic; it's also a substantial acceleration from the 2.7% pace seen in 3Q.
Bolivia's crisis: a dollar shortage, surging inflation and sinking gas exports
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Bolivia's crisis: a dollar shortage, surging inflation and sinking gas exports

Bolivia is in the midst of an economic and political crisis. Declining natural-gas production has crippled the country's ability to earn dollars; import costs have surged as a result, sending inflation soaring. As our first chart shows, consumer price inflation reached a 16-year high of 9.97% year-on-year in November. A similar increase has been observed for the producer price index (PPI) - a recent addition to the CEIC database.
US and UK December inflation: Sigh of relief for Fed and BoE
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US and UK December inflation: Sigh of relief for Fed and BoE

Some of the final economic data from the Biden era has just been released. Inflation plagued the outgoing US president's administration, and price increases remained above-target in December -- but there was enough positive news to buoy markets and price in a Federal Reserve rate cut for July.
Vietnam's rising FDI flows from China and Singapore ahead of Trump II
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Vietnam's rising FDI flows from China and Singapore ahead of Trump II

We have written previously about ASEAN nations benefiting from their role as "connector economies" as companies seek to avoid US-China trade friction - and whether Donald Trump's second term might place some of this success at risk.
China: watching the money supply as more stimulus revealed
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China: watching the money supply as more stimulus revealed

Late last year, China's government provided more guidance about its stimulus plans. On Dec. 9, the CPC Central Committee called for "implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy." It also emphasized "strengthening unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments" and explicitly called for "stabilizing the property and stock markets" for the first time. More specific announcements and plans were laid out during the Dec. 11-12 Central Economic Work Conference.
India aviation rebounds with more flights from Saudi, Vietnam, Turkey
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India aviation rebounds with more flights from Saudi, Vietnam, Turkey

Amid robust economic growth, international air travel to India has finally rebounded to pre-pandemic levels – but some of the flight patterns are different than they were in 2019.

To get a sense of the underlying trends and potentially identify hot hospitality markets, CEIC has recently added granular, city-by-city data on flights to our India premium database.
Watching real-time Japanese inflation at the cash register
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Watching real-time Japanese inflation at the cash register

The Bank of Japan – the developed world's monetary-policy outlier – is widely expected to raise interest rates soon. The central bank is also keen to see more inflation in the economy and a "positive wage-price spiral;" the BoJ most recently said that more companies are seeing the need to keep offering pay increases, given labor shortages and a minimum-wage hike.