CEIC Leading Indicator for Japan increases for the first time 4 months

Japan's CEIC Leading Indicator rose to 101.9 in April 2022, from 98.8 in March, according to the flash estimate. This is the first increase in the non-smoothed indicator since December 2021 after continuous moderation in the first quarter of this year. The smoothed indicator, however, dropped to 99.9 from 100.7 in the previous month and has been decelerating since June 2021, signaling that the peak of the business cycle might have passed in the second half of 2021.

Japan’s CEIC Leading Indicator rose to 101.9 in April 2022, from 98.8 in March

Motor vehicle sales in Japan had another month of decline in April, dropping by 14.3% y/y as the global shortage of microchips continues to halt production. Consumer confidence for overall livelihood declined, albeit marginally, and is at its lowest point since the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, as households fear inflationary pressures fueled by the war in Ukraine. Corporate manufacturing sentiment improved for the third consecutive month in April but is still below Q4 2021 values. OECD’s CPI-base real effective exchange rate (REER) fell sharply in April, plunging to its lowest level since 1974, indicating a weak JPY but at the same time improving trade competitiveness. Japan’s TOPIX small index closed April at 2,206.8 below March’s closing value.

More about the CEIC Leading Indicator for Japan here.