Our Insights

Our latest nowcast bolsters the case for a US soft landing. In fact, growth is picking up -- fodder for a scenario where the Federal Reserve will cut rates more slowly than expected.

The Fed's big rate cut in September had a knock-on effect for the Indian rupee that didn’t last. After surging against the dollar, the currency retreated against the greenback as stubborn US inflation data cast doubt on future Fed easing.

Watching transport data for a commodity producer like Brazil can provide deep insights into the economy. Sectors like mining and agriculture depend on Brazil's road and rail networks to get their products to domestic customers and ocean-going vessels for export.

Thanks to a history of unorthodox policy, Turkey has long had one of the world's worst inflation problems. As a result, it has yet to join the global rate-cutting cycle. Policy makers recently held the key rate at 50%, but were cautiously optimistic that price increases would slow.

Inflation has finally fallen below the European Central Bank's target; that's allowed policy makers to make the first back-to-back rate cuts since 2011.

China has continually adjusted its export strategy to move up the value chain; the proportion of high-tech products in the nation's trade mix steadily increased from 2020 to 2023.

Many Latin American economies are in a cyclical slowdown, but Ecuador's performance has been particularly poor. GDP shrank the most since the pandemic in the second quarter; by contrast, real GDP growth was 5% just a year earlier.

Germany is the largest trading partner for many central and eastern European Union states; nations like Czechia, Slovakia and Poland have embedded themselves in their larger neighbor's supply chains. That has made them vulnerable as Germany's manufacturers struggle.

ASEAN currencies began strengthening against the greenback in July amid increasing confidence that the Federal Reserve would pivot to rate cuts, ending the latest “King Dollar” era.

The US presidential election is just weeks away. With Vice-President Kamala Harris retaining a narrow lead on former President Donald Trump in most polls, we examined seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Like Western economies, the ASEAN nations are embarking upon monetary easing as growth decelerates and inflation moderates. First to cut was the Philippines. Next came Indonesia, the region’s largest economy -- an interesting case because of the surprise rate hike implemented earlier this year.

After years of strong growth, India's economy is slowing. While the manufacturing and services sectors are still expanding, key measures of executive sentiment in these industries have steadily slipped from early 2024 highs.