Our Insights

In Chile, producer price index is linked to the crucially important copper industry, where prices spiked to a record this year before partially retreating. When measuring the value of Chile’s imports, copper is also a factor: “intermediate” imports include inputs that are important for the mining industry.

Indian agricultural productivity has grown over the decades, but has not kept pace with other emerging markets like Bangladesh and Vietnam. This provides important context to India’s surprising election result, which saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi win fewer seats than expected in key agricultural areas.

China, Japan and South Korea say they want to accelerate talks on free trade. Examining the historic data, we can see that Japan and South Korea remain major trading partners for China in absolute terms – but in relative terms, they have become less important parts of China’s overall trade mix.

In the wake of the devastating floods in Brazil and increasing fiscal stress, the nation’s currency has been sinking. We can gain insight into this phenomenon by tracking the fund outflow data compiled by our partners at EPFR.

The first rate cut by the European Central Bank in five years sent equities higher across the eurozone. Soon thereafter, European Parliament elections saw far-right movements, especially in France and Germany, increase their influence; French President Emmanuel Macron called a snap national election in response. The next day of trading saw broad equity weakness.

US industrial production is likely to show stagnation (but not a decline) for May; meanwhile, the American consumer remains robust, according to CEIC’s latest nowcasts.

Copper’s spike earlier this year was historic. (It followed a sharp draw-down in global inventories at the end of 2023 and start of 2024.) Producing nations, especially Chile and Peru, have been the beneficiaries.

CEIC recently added fund flow data from EPFR, covering more than 151,000 share classes accounting for more than $52 trillion in assets. Their information on the flow of money around the world can help reveal perceptions of geopolitical events – including elections.

The European Central Bank has cut interest rates for the first time since 2019. CEIC users might get a real-time sense of the factors influencing Christine Lagarde's thinking by considering high-frequency indicators – such as the weekly employment data from Revelio Labs.

India's election result was a shock: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to retain power, but his BJP party lost its majority for the first time in 10 years. The stock-market drop was especially pronounced because exit polls released the day before had shown a strong majority for the BJP was likely, enabling Modi to push through market-friendly policies.

This heatmap visualization tracks whether CEIC's nowcasts have been "directionally correct," i.e. successfully predicting an increase or a decrease. Since April 2021, our models have assessed the trend correctly 76.1% of the time.

CEIC, the leading source of macroeconomic data and analytics for the world’s fastest-growing economies, is pleased to unveil a partnership with EPFR, the top provider of intelligence on global fund flows.