Our Insights

The US presidential election is just weeks away. With Vice-President Kamala Harris retaining a narrow lead on former President Donald Trump in most polls, we examined seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Like Western economies, the ASEAN nations are embarking upon monetary easing as growth decelerates and inflation moderates. First to cut was the Philippines. Next came Indonesia, the region’s largest economy -- an interesting case because of the surprise rate hike implemented earlier this year.

After years of strong growth, India's economy is slowing. While the manufacturing and services sectors are still expanding, key measures of executive sentiment in these industries have steadily slipped from early 2024 highs.

With Brazil remaining under international pressure to preserve the Amazon rainforest, Latin America's largest economy is making progress developing a forestry industry that does not rely on cutting down old-growth trees.

German firms have faced significant disruption in recent years, from the loss of cheap Russian energy supplies to trade tensions and slumping export markets. Business confidence fell for a fourth straight month in September.

Potentially inflationary supply-chain disruptions have returned to the US after dockworkers went on strike. To keep an eye on how this dispute might impact the local and global economy, CEIC users can monitor high-frequency data sourced by @MarineTraffic for real-time insights.

After the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut this month, what comes next?
We use the Adrian, Crump, and Moench model to analyze Treasury yields. A simplified explanation of the utility of this model: It aims to visualize the "term premium," what investors demand to "lock up" their money in 10-year securities rather than rolling over short-term bills.

Javier Milei was in the news again this week, delivering a fiery speech at the United Nations. As Argentina's free-marketeer president approaches the end of his first year in power, austerity measures, a liberalized exchange rate, and the abandonment of rent and price controls have all had a strong impact.

Like many countries, Malaysia wants to promote electric-vehicle adoption as part of its climate goals. During 2022, buyers of EVs received considerable tax relief: first, exemption from road tax, and then complete exemptions from import duties, excise duties, and sales tax.

Australia's central bankers were global outliers in 2024. While many of their counterparts in the G20 discussed rate cuts, the Reserve Bank of Australia continued to make hawkish noises, concerned about stubborn inflation.

We're continually tapping fund-flow data from our partners at EPFR to demonstrate how asset-allocation decisions, with their implications of heightened or waning confidence in an economy, can have a predictive relationship with bottom-up metrics.

Global commodity inflation is mostly in retreat, but aficionados of some of the world's favourite legal stimulants have yet to feel any relief.