Our Insights

Mexican manufacturing has thrived on the back of US "nearshoring,” but not all sectors are benefiting evenly. Vehicle exports have been outperforming significantly while the electronics industry slumps.

India's government has made concerted efforts to bolster its manufacturing base. The nation's banks, however, would rather lend to the nation's growing middle class.

China announced its stimulus package in September, as the third quarter was coming to an end. With official data now released for those three months, we can take a snapshot of the economy in charts: headline GDP was basically flat, but there were bright spots in services, consumption, investment and production.

Our latest nowcast bolsters the case for a US soft landing. In fact, growth is picking up -- fodder for a scenario where the Federal Reserve will cut rates more slowly than expected.

The Fed's big rate cut in September had a knock-on effect for the Indian rupee that didn’t last. After surging against the dollar, the currency retreated against the greenback as stubborn US inflation data cast doubt on future Fed easing.

Watching transport data for a commodity producer like Brazil can provide deep insights into the economy. Sectors like mining and agriculture depend on Brazil's road and rail networks to get their products to domestic customers and ocean-going vessels for export.

Thanks to a history of unorthodox policy, Turkey has long had one of the world's worst inflation problems. As a result, it has yet to join the global rate-cutting cycle. Policy makers recently held the key rate at 50%, but were cautiously optimistic that price increases would slow.

Inflation has finally fallen below the European Central Bank's target; that's allowed policy makers to make the first back-to-back rate cuts since 2011.

China has continually adjusted its export strategy to move up the value chain; the proportion of high-tech products in the nation's trade mix steadily increased from 2020 to 2023.

Many Latin American economies are in a cyclical slowdown, but Ecuador's performance has been particularly poor. GDP shrank the most since the pandemic in the second quarter; by contrast, real GDP growth was 5% just a year earlier.

Germany is the largest trading partner for many central and eastern European Union states; nations like Czechia, Slovakia and Poland have embedded themselves in their larger neighbor's supply chains. That has made them vulnerable as Germany's manufacturers struggle.

ASEAN currencies began strengthening against the greenback in July amid increasing confidence that the Federal Reserve would pivot to rate cuts, ending the latest “King Dollar” era.