CEIC Leading Indicator for Russia drops again in April
According to April 2022 data, the CEIC Leading Indicator for Russia fell to 94.1 from 95.1 in March, the lowest since August 2020. This is the second consecutive decline in the non-smoothed indicator after the Russian invasion of Ukraine which started in late February. However, the drop is softer than expected, mainly due to high fuel prices which still support the export-oriented Russian economy. The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator fell to 95.8, following nine consecutive months of deceleration and indicating that the Russian economy has possibly passed the peak of its business cycle in Q3 2021, months before the war started.
Crude oil continued to be a major source of income for the Russian economy, although spot prices averaged USD 105.6 per barrel in April, down from the ten-year high of USD 113.5 in March. While there are increasing talks among EU countries about an oil embargo, such has not been agreed on yet, paving way for more exports to Russia’s biggest trade partner. Sales of new automobiles in Russia fell to their lowest level on record in April as only 32,706 cars were sold on the domestic market, a drop of 78.5% y/y, larger than the one registered during the first COVID-19 wave in April 2020. The monetary base declined for the second month in a row, falling by 4.4% m/m to RUB 18.3tn. The RTS stock exchange continued to function at a limited capacity in April and closed the month at 1,081.5, gaining 5.9% m/m from the closing value in the previous month.
More about the CEIC Leading Indicator for Russia here
Further data and analysis on India’s economy are available on the CEIC Russia Economy in a Snapshot – Q4 2021 report.