Our Insights

Some of the final economic data from the Biden era has just been released. Inflation plagued the outgoing US president's administration, and price increases remained above-target in December -- but there was enough positive news to buoy markets and price in a Federal Reserve rate cut for July.

We have written previously about ASEAN nations benefiting from their role as "connector economies" as companies seek to avoid US-China trade friction - and whether Donald Trump's second term might place some of this success at risk.

Late last year, China's government provided more guidance about its stimulus plans. On Dec. 9, the CPC Central Committee called for "implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy." It also emphasized "strengthening unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments" and explicitly called for "stabilizing the property and stock markets" for the first time. More specific announcements and plans were laid out during the Dec. 11-12 Central Economic Work Conference.

Amid robust economic growth, international air travel to India has finally rebounded to pre-pandemic levels – but some of the flight patterns are different than they were in 2019.

To get a sense of the underlying trends and potentially identify hot hospitality markets, CEIC has recently added granular, city-by-city data on flights to our India premium database.

The Bank of Japan – the developed world's monetary-policy outlier – is widely expected to raise interest rates soon. The central bank is also keen to see more inflation in the economy and a "positive wage-price spiral;" the BoJ most recently said that more companies are seeing the need to keep offering pay increases, given labor shortages and a minimum-wage hike.

Los Angeles is battling severe wildfires. As of Jan. 9, there was no containment in sight. There were at least five deaths and over 100,000 people were forced to evacuate as entire neighborhoods were wiped out.

UK asset prices are being rocked by the global bond selloff in real time, but the underlying British economy is decidedly stronger than the Bank of England expected a year ago.

Brazil's currency was one of the world's worst performers last year as President Lula's budget plans spooked markets. The sharpest declines came in December; the central bank was forced to make its largest ever intervention in the currency markets, using more than USD 30 billion of its international reserves.

Using a high-frequency dataset, CEIC users can get a real-time sense of consumers' waxing and waning confidence well ahead of the official figures - and insights into an economy that has been a bit more sluggish than expected in 2024.

With the threat of Donald Trump's tariffs hanging over the economy, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by a half-point on Dec. 11. Officials likely saw room for this supportive move given that consumer prices are set to keep receding - an outlook that is backed up by CEIC's latest nowcast.

Will the Federal Reserve announce another rate cut on Dec. 18? Futures markets think so. A framework for the Fed's policy challenge can be found in the economist John Taylor's rough guideline for where the interest rate "should" be over the short term.

Even before Donald Trump returns to office, the US is moving to impose more tariffs. The Biden Administration views the solar industry as a critical sector, and the Commerce Department just slapped significant duties on exports from the ASEAN nations of Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam.