Reports
As ECB cuts rates, inflation retreats across the eurozone
Inflation has finally fallen below the European Central Bank's target; that's allowed policy makers to make the first back-to-back rate cuts since 2011.
Reports
How high tech has taken a greater share of China’s exports
China has continually adjusted its export strategy to move up the value chain; the proportion of high-tech products in the nation's trade mix steadily increased from 2020 to 2023.
Reports
As drought hits violence-racked Ecuador, recession is likely
Many Latin American economies are in a cyclical slowdown, but Ecuador's performance has been particularly poor. GDP shrank the most since the pandemic in the second quarter; by contrast, real GDP growth was 5% just a year earlier.
Reports
Czech and Polish exporters are caught up in Germany’s troubles
Germany is the largest trading partner for many central and eastern European Union states; nations like Czechia, Slovakia and Poland have embedded themselves in their larger neighbor's supply chains. That has made them vulnerable as Germany's manufacturers struggle.
Reports
Malaysia’s ringgit rises not just on rates, but on fund inflows
ASEAN currencies began strengthening against the greenback in July amid increasing confidence that the Federal Reserve would pivot to rate cuts, ending the latest “King Dollar” era.
Reports
Swing states where Trump and Harris are deadlocked: polls and the economy
The US presidential election is just weeks away. With Vice-President Kamala Harris retaining a narrow lead on former President Donald Trump in most polls, we examined seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Reports
Indonesia's U-turn to rate cuts in 2024 as rupiah rebounds
Like Western economies, the ASEAN nations are embarking upon monetary easing as growth decelerates and inflation moderates. First to cut was the Philippines. Next came Indonesia, the region’s largest economy -- an interesting case because of the surprise rate hike implemented earlier this year.
Reports
India’s manufacturing slowdown reflects economic headwinds
After years of strong growth, India's economy is slowing. While the manufacturing and services sectors are still expanding, key measures of executive sentiment in these industries have steadily slipped from early 2024 highs.
Reports
Brazil's tree farms thrive as Amazon deforestation recedes
With Brazil remaining under international pressure to preserve the Amazon rainforest, Latin America's largest economy is making progress developing a forestry industry that does not rely on cutting down old-growth trees.
Reports
DAX strength belies Germany’s tough corporate earnings environment
German firms have faced significant disruption in recent years, from the loss of cheap Russian energy supplies to trade tensions and slumping export markets. Business confidence fell for a fourth straight month in September.
Reports
Monitoring US ports as dockworkers' strike threatens to rekindle inflation
Potentially inflationary supply-chain disruptions have returned to the US after dockworkers went on strike. To keep an eye on how this dispute might impact the local and global economy, CEIC users can monitor high-frequency data sourced by @MarineTraffic for real-time insights.
Reports
US financial conditions through the lens of Treasury term premia
After the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut this month, what comes next?
We use the Adrian, Crump, and Moench model to analyze Treasury yields. A simplified explanation of the utility of this model: It aims to visualize the "term premium," what investors demand to "lock up" their money in 10-year securities rather than rolling over short-term bills.
We use the Adrian, Crump, and Moench model to analyze Treasury yields. A simplified explanation of the utility of this model: It aims to visualize the "term premium," what investors demand to "lock up" their money in 10-year securities rather than rolling over short-term bills.