CEIC's GDP nowcast for India projects a growth of 3.8% y/y for Q1 2022

CEIC's GDP nowcast projects a growth of 5.6% for Q4 2021, and 3.8% y/y for Q1 2022, as on February 23, 2022. While the nowcast for Q4 2021 now remains steady, that for Q1 2022 decreased by 0.8pp, as compared to the last update on February 14, 2022, driven by air passenger and air cargo traffic, and rainfall.

The growth in air cargo traffic slowed to 0.5% y/y in January 2022, as compared to 6.9% y/y in December 2021, reducing the GDP nowcast by 0.21pp. Air passenger traffic, which had been decelerating for the past four months, declined in January 2021, by 8.7% y/y because of the third wave of COVID-19. This reduced the GDP nowcast further by 0.32pp. Rainfall increased by 165.5% in February 2022 but caused the GDP nowcast to decline by 0.31pp. Crude petroleum production continued to decline, by 2.4% y/y, exacerbating from the 1.8% y/y decline the previous month. However, this impacted the GDP nowcast positively by 0.04pp. 

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