Our Insights

 Rice is in the news again in Japan. As shortages drive prices for this basic foodstuff sharply higher, Donald Trump is criticizing Tokyo for not buying more from US farmers (a key Republican Party constituency).

Thailand has had repeated political crises in recent decades, and the on-and-off turmoil has weighed on its economy. The latest episode involves Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who was suspended in the wake of her leaked phone call to Hun Sen, Cambodia's former leader.

Donald Trump's tariffs on China are making the headlines, but China's own levies on imports from the US are also noteworthy. China uses this tool of trade policy to protect industries where it believes the nation is self-sufficient, while keeping tariffs lower on sectors where US imports are viewed as key to an overall development strategy.

DOGE might be hitting the federal workforce, but public-sector hiring at the state and local level was enough to drive a better-than-expected June US payrolls report. Revisions also showed the gravity-defying job market added more jobs in past months than originally estimated -- reaffirming expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged this month.

In our latest video on demand, our economist discusses the oil pricing, consumption and inventory indicators that can be used to build predictive, fast-reacting models. Alternative data – such as near-real-time airline traffic – offers insights into the crucial Chinese market.

Donald Trump stepped up his pressure on Jerome Powell this week, criticizing the Federal Reserve chair for not cutting interest rates. Reports said the US president was considering naming Powell's successor early in a bid to undermine the last year of the Fed chief's tenure.

High-frequency indicators give CEIC users early insight into official data published with a time lag.

In this case, we've charted the correlation between commodity prices and China's producer price index (PPI) -- showing that the deflationary trend seen since mid-2024 is likely to break.

With an Israel-Iran ceasefire holding for now, we've examining the effects on shipping using high-frequency data from MarineTraffic. Since Israel's June 13 attack on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, Middle East port arrivals and departures -- perhaps surprisingly -- are rebounding on a year-on-year basis.

The Israel-Iran conflict has oil traders and shipping firms focused on the Strait of Hormuz -- a critical chokepoint for Middle East energy exports. A blockade by Iran would have global implications for inflation and oil prices, but arguably the disruption would be most keenly felt in Asia-Pacific countries -- the key destination for Persian Gulf oil.

Real wages among ASEAN-6 countries have remained broadly stagnant, with nominal increases offset by a rising cost of living. This is particularly the case for Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines -- but even high-income Singapore is not immune.

Is the US fiscal path sustainable, especially given sticky inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates and the Trump administration's unpredictable policy mix? Questions were raised after a government bond auction in May was poorly received, but more recent debt sales indicated there is still robust demand for long-term securities.

Financial crises are not all created equally. We can take a historic look at the severity of various episodes since the 1990s thanks to fund-flow data from our partners at EPFR - and compare the differing levels of global contagion on equities and bonds.