Drupal blog posts

The REDD Eye

smiah — Thu, 08 Jun 2023 10:06:51 +0000

ポッドキャスト「The REDD Eye」をリリース

Our sister company, REDD Intelligence has recently released The REDD Eye - a 3 min financial news podcast, which summarises the week’s most important high-yield credit headlines in Latin America, hand-picked by editors.

This week, REDD discusses Samarco reaching a restructuring agreement, Claro-VTR owners discuss short-term funding, Grupo Mexico gets a concession extension and Digicel has more time to cure bonds default, among other topics.

Listen to the podcast here on Spotify.

cimpleo 2023/06/08(木) - 10:06

A podcast by our sister company, REDD Intelligence

記事

REDD intelligence, podcast, latam

Country

Brazil

US Fed might weigh rate cuts in a tighter liquidity environment

smiah — Tue, 11 Apr 2023 08:42:18 +0000

米国連邦準備制度理事会は利下げの検討に直面しています

The US Federal Reserve is encountering mounting pressure to reduce the federal funds rate, owing to a decline in liquidity across the US financial system. The latest data reveals that the M2 monetary aggregate, a critical measure of money supply, suffered its first annual drop on record in December 2022, sinking by 1.2% year on year. This trend continued in the subsequent two months, with a sharper fall recorded. The latest data shows that in February 2023, M2 decreased by 2.2% year on year, propelled by a substantial 11.8% year-on-year drop in liquid deposits, which account for 62% of the total money supply. Commercial bank deposits in weekly frequency traditionally follow the same path as money supply. As they have been rapidly declining in March, M2 is expected to continue falling annually.

The recent decline in liquidity is driven by the uncertainty about the stability of the banking sector, combined with the appeal of higher-yielding investment opportunities, which prompted depositors to withdraw funds from banks. Further, the slowdown in the growth rate of both demand deposits and currency in circulation since the first half of 2022 has added to the liquidity concerns, although these two indicators have not declined yet.

In response to these liquidity challenges, the Federal Reserve may contemplate cutting interest rates earlier than anticipated to facilitate borrowing and enhance money supply. Such a move could relieve some of the pressure that banks are currently facing, making it easier for them to lend and ultimately boost economic activity. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is slated for May 3rd, and market consensus predicts that the monetary authority will refrain from taking any action regarding the fed funds target rate, which currently stands at 4.75-5%.

Further data and analysis on the US economy are available on the CEIC US Economy in a Snapshot – Q1 2023 Report.

cimpleo 2023/04/11(火) - 08:42

記事

US, Feds, interest rates, money supply

Country

United States

CEIC’s GDP Nowcast for India projects a growth of 6.1% y/y for Q2 FY2023

smiah — Wed, 30 Nov 2022 08:35:12 +0000

CEICのインドGDPナウキャストでは、2023年度第2四半期は前年同期比6.1%増と予測

India’s GDP for Q3 2022 (or Q2 FY2023) is set to release later today, and CEIC’s proprietary GDP nowcast projects an expansion of 6.1% y/y, slowing from the 13.5% y/y growth in the Q2 2022, as low base effect dissipates.

Amongst the underlying indicators, the cash reserve ratio contributed the maximum to the growth of the nowcast for Q3 2022, 0.65pp cumulatively over the whole quarter, while electricity generation took away the most, with a total of 2.58pp reduction in the nowcast. The positive momentum of the nowcast over the quarter was largely due to railway freight traffic, air passenger traffic, and commercial bank credit, besides the cash reserve ratio. On the other side, electricity consumption, cement production, and crude petroleum production emerged as the key detractors of the GDP nowcast, after electricity generation.

Further data and analysis on India’s economy are available on the CEIC India Economy in a Snapshot – Q3 2022 report.

cimpleo 2022/11/30(水) - 08:35

Cash reserve ratio contributed the maximum to the growth of the nowcast for Q3 2022

記事

GDP Nowcasting, India, consumption, economy

Country

India

Manufacturing PMI for India decelerated to 55.1 in September 2022

pparekh — Fri, 28 Oct 2022 05:32:30 +0000

インド：製造業PMIは55.1に減速　2022年9月

The manufacturing PMI for India recorded a second consecutive fall in September 2022, to 55.1, from 56.2 in August, making this fall much sharper than the previous one, even as it continued to remain in the expansionary phase.

The output index shrunk to 57.3 in September, by 3.6pts over the August figure, while the fall in new orders index was less pronounced, which reduced by 1.9pts over the same period, to 58.6. However, the increase in new export orders continued over September, reaching 55.2, from 53.9 previously. The employment index also expanded to 50.7, turning around after decelerating for three straight months since June. The backlogs of work index, which shows the levels of unfinished orders, climbed down to 50.6 in September, after a sharp increase to 52 in August.

The total quantity of purchases index decelerated a second month in a row, to 56.0 in September, a decrease of 1.8pt over August. Over the same period, on one hand, the stocks of purchases index (the level of inventory purchases) increased to 54.8, by 0.3pt over the August figure, while on the other hand, the stocks of finished goods index, representing the volume of finished products that are awaiting sales, slowed to 46.3, from 48.9. Suppliers’ delivery times, turned into contraction in September, moving to 49.4, from 50.8 in the previous month, implying a shortening of average lead time. Input prices reduced to another new low since October 2020, to 53.9, signaling a respite in the upward movement of prices for a fifth consecutive month. The output price index, which had picked up in August, also eased to 51.8 in September, marking a drop of 0.9pp over August. The orders to inventories ratio moved upwards to 1.3 in September, the highest since February 2022. Capacity utilization grew to 50.6, marking a second consecutive increase.

Explore more charts

Further data and analysis on India’s economy are available on the CEIC India Economy in a Snapshot – Q3 2022 report.

cimpleo 2022/10/28(金) - 05:32

The manufacturing PMI for India recorded a second consecutive fall in September 2022, to 55.1, from 56.2 in August.

記事

manufacturing PMI, suppliers, India

Country

India

Germany's financial markets' sentiment improves marginally

smiah — Tue, 18 Oct 2022 12:46:44 +0000

ドイツ：金融市場センチメント　小幅に改善

Germany's financial markets experts' sentiment improved marginally in October for the first time since June. The economic expectations indicator, published by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim inched up to -59.2% from -61.9% in the previous month.

The current economic situation indicator however kept declining, dropping to -72.2% in October, the lowest level since August 2020, compared to 60.5% in September.

The ZEW Indicator is constructed as the difference between the percentage share of analysts who are optimistic and the share of analysts who are pessimistic about the economy in the coming six months. Despite the marginal improvement in the expectations indicator, the data still points to a widespread negative sentiment among the financial markets community in Germany. There are growing concerns about the upcoming recession in Europe in light of the potential energy crisis and higher interest rates, which could put breaks on economic growth.

In Germany specifically, households and businesses are bracing for the winter months in an environment of uncertain energy supplies. Due to the war in Ukraine and the sanctions by the EU and the US imposed on Russia, there are concerns about the potential energy supplies from Russia to Europe. Germany is especially vulnerable as it is highly dependent on Russian gas.

Explore more visuals here

Read more in the quarterly report Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot - Q3 2022.

cimpleo 2022/10/18(火) - 12:46

The current economic situation indicator however kept declining, dropping to -72.2% in October

記事

ZEW, financial markets, economic expectation indicator, Germany

Country

Germany

Poland total exports up by 29.05% y/y in August 2022

smiah — Fri, 14 Oct 2022 10:29:22 +0000

ポーランド：輸出総額　前年比29.05％増　2022年8月

Poland's total exports increased by 29.05% y/y in August 2022, following growth of 18.09% y/y in the previous month. The indicator is updated monthly, available from January 2001 to August 2022.

The data reached an all-time high of 69.05% y/y in April 2021 and a record low of -24.57% y/y in April 2020.

Read more in the quarterly report Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot - Q3 2022.

cimpleo 2022/10/14(金) - 10:29

The data reached an all-time high of 69.05% y/y in April 2021

記事

Poland, exports, economy, foreign trade

Country

Poland

US inflation still high despite third consecutive drop

smiah — Fri, 14 Oct 2022 10:17:21 +0000

米国：インフレ率　3年連続低下も依然高水準

Consumer inflation in the US decelerated for the third month in a row in September, easing by 0.1pp to 8.2% y/y. According to the latest data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index (CPI) recorded a monthly increase of 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.2%.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 6.6% y/y, from 6.3% in August. This translated into a 0.6% m/m increase. The energy component of the CPI dropped below 20% y/y for the first time since March 2021 and stood at 19.8%. Food inflation remained almost unchanged, at 11.2% y/y.

The latest consumer inflation stats signal that more interest rate hikes are to be expected from the Federal Reserve. This sentiment is also backed by the tight US labour market which also stimulates more hawkish behaviour from the Fed.

Further data and analysis on the US economy are available on the CEIC US Economy in a Snapshot – Q3 2022 Report.

cimpleo 2022/10/14(金) - 10:17

Core inflation accelerated to 6.6% y/y, from 6.3% in August

記事

inflation, United States, Fed, CPI

Country

United States

China industrial value added down by 2.9% y/y in April 2022

smiah — Mon, 16 May 2022 08:02:42 +0000

2022年4月の中国工業付加価値、前年同月比2.9%減

The industry sector has recorded the first negative growth since March 2020. In April, industrial production, measured by value added of industry, shrank by nearly 3% y/y, in sharp contrast with the 5% positive y/y growth observed in the previous month.

The manufacturing sector as a whole plunged by 4.6% y/y despite the fact that high tech manufacturing saw a 4% y/y expansion. Among major industries, the automobile industry was hit hard especially, posting a nearly 32% y/y decline, followed by the general equipment industry with a nearly 16% drop. Even the pharmaceutical industry, which enjoyed double digit growth in a majority of the months since Q4 2020, reported a negative growth of 3.8% y/y, the first negative growth since data are available.

Country

China

India’s headline retail inflation climbs to 7.8% y/y, an eight-year high, in April 2022

smiah — Fri, 13 May 2022 08:59:28 +0000

インド 2022年4月のヘッドライン小売インフレ率前年同月比7.8％と8年ぶりの高水準に上昇2022

Headline retail inflation stood at 7.8% in April 2022, as compared to 7.0% in March. Core inflation spiked up for a fourth consecutive month in April, to 7.0%. This marks the highest recorded inflation for both headline and core, since April 2014, at 8.5% and 8.4%, respectively. The increase in the consumer price index (CPI) has continued on the back of a prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine that has added to global supply disruptions. The consumer price index for food and beverages, which form the largest share of the total inflation basket, grew by 8.1% y/y in April, accelerating from 7.5% y/y in March. The CPI for miscellaneous items, which forms the second largest category following food and beverages, underwent a sharp increase to 8.0% y/y, the highest since September 2012. The third-largest component, CPI for housing, grew by 3.5% y/y in April, accelerating from 3.4% y/y in the previous month. Clothing and footwear prices also continued to climb upwards as the corresponding CPI stood at 9.9% y/y in April, from 9.4% y/y in March, the highest since June 2013. The CPI for fuel and light grew by 10.8% y/y in April, spiking up sharply from 7.5% y/y in March, after five months of continued deceleration, as the elevated crude oil prices got absorbed at the retail level.

In terms of components of the food basket, all the major items sustained the increase that was seen in the previous month. The CPI for cereals and products increased by 6.0% y/y, recording a 1pp acceleration over the previous month. The prices of milk and milk products also spiked up as the CPI recorded a growth of 5.5% y/y. The CPI for vegetables grew by 15.4% y/y, recording an increase of 3.8pp over the previous month, making it the largest acceleration among others. This was followed by the increase in the CPI for fruits, which grew by 2.5pp to 5.0% y/y in April. Prepared meals, snacks, sweets, etc., increased by 7.1% y/y in April, by 0.5pp. On the other hand, meat and fish, as well as oils and fats, saw some respite in the form of deceleration in the CPI growth values.

Rural and urban inflation, both climbed upwards in April, to 8.4% and 7.1%, respectively. Much like the headline figure, the CPI for rural is at its highest since 2013. The urban inflation, however, climbed to its highest in October 2020, to 7.3% y/y. In terms of states, especially the major ones, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh saw the largest increase in CPI, at 9.1% y/y, followed by Telangana at 9% y/y. On the other side, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka recorded the lowest inflation, at 5.1% y/y, 5.4% y/y, and 6.4% y/y, respectively. The north-eastern states continue to have lower-than-average inflation, with the exception of Arunachal Pradesh, which saw the highest inflation in April amongst all states, at 9.2% y/y, and Assam, where inflation was at 8.5%.

Further data and analysis on India’s economy are available on the CEIC India Economy in a Snapshot – Q1 2022 report.

cimpleo 2022/05/13(金) - 08:59

The increase in the CPI has continued on the back of a prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine

記事

inflation, CPI, Indian economy

Country

India

CEIC Leading Indicator for Japan increases for the first time 4 months

smiah — Thu, 12 May 2022 09:51:16 +0000

日本のCEIC先行指標、4カ月ぶりに上昇 2022年4月

Japan's CEIC Leading Indicator rose to 101.9 in April 2022, from 98.8 in March, according to the flash estimate. This is the first increase in the non-smoothed indicator since December 2021 after continuous moderation in the first quarter of this year. The smoothed indicator, however, dropped to 99.9 from 100.7 in the previous month and has been decelerating since June 2021, signaling that the peak of the business cycle might have passed in the second half of 2021.

Motor vehicle sales in Japan had another month of decline in April, dropping by 14.3% y/y as the global shortage of microchips continues to halt production. Consumer confidence for overall livelihood declined, albeit marginally, and is at its lowest point since the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, as households fear inflationary pressures fueled by the war in Ukraine. Corporate manufacturing sentiment improved for the third consecutive month in April but is still below Q4 2021 values. OECD’s CPI-base real effective exchange rate (REER) fell sharply in April, plunging to its lowest level since 1974, indicating a weak JPY but at the same time improving trade competitiveness. Japan’s TOPIX small index closed April at 2,206.8 below March’s closing value.

More about the CEIC Leading Indicator for Japan here.

Further data and analysis on Japan’s economy are available on the CEIC Japan Economy in a Snapshot – Q1 2022 report.

cimpleo 2022/05/12(木) - 09:51

Japan’s CEIC Leading Indicator rose to 101.9 in April 2022, from 98.8 in March

記事

CPI, consumer confidence, REER,

Country

Japan