Articles
Monetary Easing Cycle in Brazil in Danger, as Services Inflation Persists
Articles
Early 2024 Rainfall Data in Ivory Coast Sends Mixed Signals on Global Cocoa Prices Outlook
Articles
Japan: Stable Weekly Inflation Nowcast and Upward GDP Revision Increase Chances of Rate Hike in March
Articles
Manufacturing in Mexico Thrives in Early 2024 on the Back of Nearshoring Boom
Articles
CEIC Nowcast: Brazil's February Inflation Sees Modest Rise, Breaking Five-Month Downtrend
Articles
US Fed is Right to Wait; the Labour Market is Not (Yet) Cooling Down
Reports
ASEAN-6 Imports from China and the United States: 20 Years Apart
In an uncertain and harder to predict geopolitical and economic environment, talks about new world order or at least about significant shifts in international relations are not unfounded. In that sense an appropriate approach to observe the data is to zoom out. When monitoring key indicators in decade and not monthly increments the reorientation of key emerging markets towards China is straightforward. Let's take a look at South-East Asia for example, where the majority of the global population lives.
Articles
China Spring Festival Tourism Finally Recovers Above Pre-Pandemic Levels
One full year after China's reopening, domestic tourism during the Spring Festival saw a robust rebound, which is set to provide a welcome boost to economic activity and send positive cross-border signals about the recovery of the second largest global economy, as developed markets are hoping for a soft landing while emerging economies are facing brighter outlook in 2024.
Articles
GDP Nowcast: Brazil's Economy Saw Rebound in the end of 2023
The Brazilian economy expanded by 3.3% y/y in Q4, exhibiting a substantial rebound, accelerating from the 2% y/y growth of Q3, according to CEIC's real-time GDP nowcast ahead of the official release on March 1st. Further, the nowcast points to sustained momentum in 2024 with a projected 3.9% y/y expansion in Q1 2024.
Articles
EU's Exports to Kyrgyzstan Surge, Signalling Russian Sanctions Evasion
As the world approaches the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, followed by sanctions and the banning of exports to Russia by many Western countries, there has been a notable spike in these exports to other countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Even excluding the increased exports to Ukraine, exports from European Union countries to CIS nations rose over 50% year-over-year a few months after the beginning of the war, with Kyrgyzstan emerging as the major beneficiary.
Articles
CEIC Nowcast: India's Economy Closed 2023 with Slight Slowdown
India's economy is projected to have slowed down during the calendar Q4 2023 (Q3 FY2024) to 6.9% y/y from 7.6% y/y in the previous quarter, according to CEIC's GDP nowcast. This would be the second consecutive quarter in a row of decelerating economic expansion, estimated ahead of the official release by the Ministry of Statistics' release scheduled for February 29th. However, the nowcast for the current quarter, Q1 2024 (Q4 FY2024), projects substantial rebound by 10.1% y/y.
Reports
Cheaper Exports from China Support Lower Inflation in Asia and Latin America
China’s producer prices dropped by 2.5% year-on-year in January, marking the 16th consecutive month of negative producer inflation. While this makes China’s export goods more competitive globally, the inexpensive exports from China have also aided countries in Asia and Latin America in controlling inflation throughout 2023.