CEIC China Data Talk: Thoughts about Usual Resident Population

CEIC China Data Talk - December 29, 2015 China’s new ‘two-child policy’ is well-perceived as casting a favorable impact on the economy with its boost to the future size of the labor force. While it will take time to prove its effectiveness, the changing patterns of population movements within regions have provided us with good clues to the current economic situation. Recently, CEIC has codified and enriched our prefecture-level city dataset, and would like to use this dataset to briefly discuss changes in the population. Let’s first look at Guangdong, a large manufacturing province:
  • The Household Registered Population of Guangdong Province including 21 prefecture-level cities in 2010 and in 2013 were 85.22 million and 87.46 million respectively.
  • The Usual Resident Population of Guangdong Province including 21 prefecture-level cities in 2010 and in 2013 were 104.41 million and 106.44 million respectively.

The numbers above show that the migrant usual resident population in Guangdong Province was 19.19 million in 2010 and amounted to 18.98 million in 2013, a total drop of 210,000 during the period. This reflects that the migrant usual resident population is declining approximately by 70,000 people per year on average. Now, let’s move to Dongguan, a city in Guangdong Province:

  • The Household Registered Population of Dongguan in 2010 and in 2014 were 1.82 million and 1.91 million respectively.
  • The Usual Resident population of Dongguan in 2010 and in 2014 were 8.23 million and 8.34 million respectively.

Therefore, the migrant usual resident population in Dongguan was 6.41 million in 2010 and later reached 6.43 million in 2014. An overall increase of 22,000 people throughout the period indicates that the migrant usual resident population increases approximately by 5,500 people per year on average. Compared to the population statistics from 2000 to 2010, the migrant usual resident population has risen by 1.49 million which accounts for an average increase of around 149,000 people per year. The shrinking of the migrant usual resident population in Guangdong Province and a corresponding sharp drop in the growth of the migrant usual resident population in Dongguan City are both valid signals of the undeniable fact that the “World Factory” is being hit by an economic slowdown and/or the economic restructuring in China is undergoing changes within regions in a tottering manner. We hope this prefecture-level city population dataset on household registration and usual residence can provide your research with useful tips. Contributed by the China Database Team Discuss this post and many other topics in our LinkedIn Group (you must be a LinkedIn member to participate). Request a Free Trial Subscription. Back to Blog

29th December 2015 CEIC China Data Talk: Thoughts about Usual Resident Population

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