The Thai economy is likely to expand at a moderate pace in 2019 in spite of plans to increase public spending and fixed investment related to infrastructure facilities.

According to the seasonally adjusted leading economic index (LEI), which is used for evaluating the short term economic trend (3-4 months), there are worrisome signals for the economy.

The March LEI value experienced its sharpest contraction since 2014 (-0.7% y/y) and although the April figure returned to a modest positive (0.2% y/y), the indicator is far from its strongest days.

This lacklustre development was also reflected in the GDP growth forecasts of various institutions. The Bank of Thailand expects the economy to grow by 3.8% in 2019 and 3.9% in 2020. 

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