CEIC Gallery/Emerging Economics - September 6th, 2016
Retail sales in China grew steadily in July, namely, 10.2% YoY and 0.75% MoM, respectively. For the first seven months, China recorded total retail sales of Rmb18.3trn, representing 10.3% YoY growth. First, online sales boomed. Secondly, retail sales of commodities related to people's living, apparel and travel maintained a robust growth.
Chart 1.1 & 1.2: China recorded retail sales of Rmb2.7trn in July, slightly up 0.75% on MoM basis (+0.91% MoM in June). YoY Growths slowed sharply from 10.6% in June to 10.2%, 0.3ppt below the median forecast of 10.5%. Excluding price effect, the real growth showed a bigger decline of 0.5ppt from 10.3% YoY to 9.8% YoY, missing expectations in a disappointing sign for the world's second-largest economy as the Chinese government look to consumer demand to push growth.
Chart 1.3 & 1.4: For the first seven months, China's retail sales rose 10.3% YoY to Rmb18.3 trn.
Chart 2.1: In urban area, retail sales rose 10.1% YoY to Rmb2.3trn in July, slowed down from 10.5% YoY in June, accounting for 86% of total sales.
Chart 2.2: In rural area, retail sales rose 10.7% YoY to Rmb370bm, slowed down from 11.2% YoY in June, accounting for 14% of total sales.
Chart 2.3: Although rural area recorded faster growth of retail sales, we saw slight increase of the proportion of urban area from 85.9% in June to 86.2% in July.
Chart 3.1, 3.2 & 3.3: For the first seven months, retail sales in urban areas reached Rmb15.7trn. The YoY growth flattened at 10.2%. For the same period, retail sales in rural areas increased 10.9% YoY to Rmb2.6trn, accounting for 14% of total sales.
Chart 5.1: China's first-seven-month online retail sales stood out by shooting 26.1% YoY to Rmb2.1trn. Although the growth rate slightly dropped by 0.5ppt, it's attributable to the continuous high base from the beginning of the year.
Chart 5.2: The proportion of online sales continued rocketing to almost one-third of total retail sales, 5ppt more than that of the first six months.
Chart 6.1: Internet shopping popped out among major retail channels with much higher than average YoY growths. In July, internet shopping of key 5,000 retail enterprises tracked by the Commerce Department recorded 24.8% YoY growth while department store, supermarket and specialty store only saw single-digit YoY growth, namely, 2.1%, 6.9%, and 2.4%.
Chart 6.2: The discrepancy is much more obvious among YTD sales figures. For instance, internet shopping increased 25.2% YoY for the first seven months while department store flattened at +0.8% YoY.
Chart 7.1 & 2: In July, commodity retail sales grew 10.1% YoY to Rmb2.4trn, adding the total amount of first seven months to Rmb16.3trn, representing +10.2% YoY growth.
Chart 7.3: In general, commodity accounted for the majority of retail sales, namely, 89.3%.
Chart 8.1 & 2: Benefiting from the strong property sales national wide, retail sales of construction and decoration material rose 15% YoY to Rmb27.7bn, adding the total number of first seven months to Rmb172.5bn, up 15.5% for the same period last year.
Chart 8.3 & 4: Monthly furniture sales growth accelerated to 13.6% YoY in July. For the first seven months, furniture sales in China amounted to Rmb1471.1bn, representing 15.3% YoY increase.
Chart 9.1 & 2: Growth momentum of personal clothing, shoes, hats and textile purchases continued in July. The corresponding monthly retail sales shoot 9.4% YoY to Rmb101.6bn, adding YTD number to Rmb784.1bn.
Chart 10.1 & 2: Although auto sales growth slowed down from 9.5% YoY in June to 9.2% YoY in July, the accelerating trend of YTD YoY growth that started from last August extended. For the first seven months, auto retail sales in China amounted to Rmb2.1trn, representing a 7.9% YoY growth.
Chart 10.3 & 4: However, petroleum and related product sales were somewhat affected by the extreme weather and floods. In July, petroleum and related product sales dropped 2.1% YoY to Rmb152.6bn. For the first seven months, total retail sales slightly declined 1.4% YoY to Rmb1trn.
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