Our Insights

As we move into mid-December, the economic narrative for 2024 appears clear in retrospect: inflation was mostly tamed, and most central banks could start easing.

Predicting "transitory" inflation went wrong for some of the world's central bankers earlier this decade, but this might be a safer call for India -- where a spike in food prices is reversing itself in real time.

Latin America's economies are diverging lately. Unlike the positive trends seen in Brazil and Peru recently, Chilean growth is facing a few wobbles; a pickup in business bankruptcies is the latest data point.

China is the world's biggest iron-ore producer, and it imports most of this key steelmaking ingredient by sea. Once we consider how much iron ore is in the holds of vessels calling at Chinese ports, we can get an early sense of iron-ore imports – and a signal about the economy more broadly – by monitoring shipping traffic.

Donald Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico made the headlines beyond North America; manufacturing imports from Mexico had long been in Trump's crosshairs, but in Canada, the president-elect is now calling out a major energy exporter whose free-trade deal with the US predated NAFTA.

Inflation was a factor in this month's presidential election, but Americans gathering for the Thanksgiving holiday might note that their turkey dinner has become easier to afford.

Thailand has benefited from a steady stream of foreign direct investment since 2021. A sector to watch is manufacturing - and China, in particular, has emerged as a key source of capital.

Peru's economy is on a roll, recovering strongly after four consecutive quarters of contraction in 2023, and its businessmen think things will only get better. With inflation under control, its borrowing costs are the lowest in Latin America and GDP growth is exceeding expectations.

As President-elect Donald Trump approaches his inauguration in January, his administration might have to grapple with an increasingly regular feature of US political life: a crisis involving the federal debt ceiling.

Last year, China surpassed Japan to become the top motor vehicle exporter. The nation was already the world's largest automaker, surpassing Japan in production in 2009; China accounts for nearly a third of global vehicle production today, with output surpassing 30 million in 2023.

To manage traffic on a densely populated island, Singapore's government maintains strict rules on vehicle ownership. Aspiring drivers must acquire certificates of entitlement (COEs) - permits that give the holder the right to own and use a vehicle over a 10-year period.

Will Jerome Powell follow up his election-week rate cut with another in December? While the Federal Reserve chief will be considering the inflationary impact of president-elect Trump's policies, another factor will be the job market.